North Sound Property News

This time of the year brings all kinds of changes, and the world of real estate is no different.  One change that you’ll be seeing on this blog in 2008, is that in addition to residential real estate news, I’ll also be commenting on the commercial real estate market and business climate in the Mukilteo and Everett area.

The Mukilteo residential real estate market (zip code 98275) is currently at what will probably be the low point of inventory for the year.  Word of mouth among agents is that activity is starting to pick up after a slow few months following the “implosion” of lending markets last August.   Open houses are becoming busier now that the holidays are over, and the big question on everyone’s mind is whether the “lookers” will become buyers this spring.  Certainly, interest rates are excellent right now, but fears about the direction of the market may be keeping some potential buyers from moving forward. One noticeable change this year vs. last is that below price offers are becoming more common, and offers that are more than 5% lower than asking price seem to have a much better chance than they once did of actually being accepted. A year or so ago, it was pretty much a given that a buyer needed to be “in the ballpark” (within 2 or 3% of list) to get an acceptance. That seems to have changed.

Due to out of town travel over the holidays, I was unable to compile a full set of sales statistics for the month of November, so I will only be reporting Sold statistics for November.  I will, however, provide the full set of statistics for December.

Here is the table of median sale/listing prices in Mukilteo since June:

Looking at the last 6 months, list and sale prices have moved all over the map (month to month statistics tend to be volatile, so this is no surprise), but what’s interesting is that while the trend appeared to be mostly upwards through August 2007, since that time the trend has been mainly down.  This is in keeping with the timing of events in the sub-prime market, which have directly impacted the local and national real estate markets.

December 2008 Market Statistics for Mukilteo:

Active Listings  (Listing count includes ALL listings on the market)
Listing Count: 82 (month-to-month trend direction: down)
Average Time on Market: 152 (up)
Median List Price: $654,975 (up)
Average $ Per Square Foot: $269 (up)

Generally, most people don’t like to put their home on the market during the holidays and not surprisingly, December 2007 listings were very light, with only 5 new listings coming on the market.  This is also the time of year when many sellers take their homes off the market so that they can enjoy the holidays without interruptions.  During November and December, 54 properties were pulled off the market through expiration, cancellation or temporary removal of the listing. Of those 54, it is quite likely that many will be returned to the market in the spring, along with new listings that are likely to come online. That would indicate that most likely inventory will remain at high levels moving into spring, which will tend to keep prices flat.

To illustrate this point, as of today, 26 new listings have already come on the market since January 1, 2008. Of those, 12 of those are re-lists, almost all of which have been re-listed with price reductions of $20,000 or more. I would expect both trends (increasing inventory and price reductions) to continue over the next couple of months as we move into the spring selling season. 

Under Contract (includes Contingent, Active STI and Pending)
Listing Count: 16
Average Time On Market: 177 Days
Median List Price: $625,000
Average $ Square Foot: $235

With 82 active listings on the market and 16 properties going under contract in December, the supply of inventory in the Mukilteo area has dropped from 9 months in October down to 5 months.  However, if inventory climbs moving into spring and demand fails to increase along with it, absorption rates will begin rising again, and pricing is likely to be impacted.

Sold Listings
Listing Count: 13 (down from 30 in December 2006)
Average Time On Market: 97 Days (up from 59 in 2006)
Median Sale Price: $544,950 (up from 532,500 in 2006)
Average $ Square Foot: $239 (up from $229 in 2006)

We are still seeing slight year over year price increases in Mukilteo, but volumes are approximately a third of what they were during the same period last year.  As turmoil in the financial markets continues to impact the local market, look for inventory to increase through March, at which time we would normally expect to see the “Spring Buyers” enter the market.  My guess (and this is just a guess) is that we will see sale volumes pick up over where they are now, but they will likely remain at lower levels than in the last two years, with prices staying more or less flat through this year, or declining somewhat.

Note: all market statistics are hand-compiled by me using NWMLS data, and include the Mukilteo city limits/98275 area code only, and are for residential properties only.
 

About the Author: Sandy Kaduce is Associate Broker of Gallery Homes Real Estate. She serves buyers and sellers in North King and South Snohomish counties. She is 2009 Board President of the Mukilteo Chamber of Commerce, as well as Vice President of Site Selection for Habitat for Humanity of Snohomish County. For more information, visit Sandy on the web at www.sandykaduce.com! Read more from this author