Home prices continue falling – here, there and everywhere

From Seattle Times today:

Home prices are falling in most major U.S. cities, and at least 10 major markets,including Seattle, are at their lowest point since the housing bubble burst.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city index shows price declines in 19 cities from January to February. The index fell for the seventh straight month. Prices fell at a faster rate in 11 markets in February compared with the previous month.

High unemployment, stricter lending rules and fears that prices will fall further are among the reasons why few people are buying and selling homes. A record number of foreclosures are forcing down home prices in most metro areas, and prices are expected to keep falling through this year.

 

These factors all hold true locally as well as nationally – we see them in play in every neighborhood and every price range.  Although the Seattle area overall economy appears to be in recovery, there is a large percentage of bank owned and “distressed” properties, including short sales, that are keeping prices low.  For example, in Mukilteo specifically, rates of short sale and bank owned listings continue to make up 20-30% of the market.   In addition, although hiring is improving, unemployment overall in the King and Snohomish county areas remains higher than the national average.

Also from the article:

The cities with the steepest declines from January — 2 percent or more were Minneapolis, San Francisco, Chicago and Miami. The Seattle metropolitan area, which includes King, Snohomish and Pierce counties, was right behind them with a 1.9 percent monthly drop. Home prices here haven’t been lower since June 2004, according to Case-Shiller.

 Finally:

In many depressed markets, a significant percentage of buyers are really investors and private equity firms looking to cash in on cheap real estate.

This is the interesting thing to note because cash buyers tend to be investors.  Investors come into a market when the projected rents provide a rate of return that is attractive.  Over the last 12 months, about 10 – 20% of the buyers in Mukilteo have been cash sales.  In some cases these may be people who intend to live in a property but the majority are probably purchasing these properties to rent them out.  When cash investors believe a market will turn around long term, they do not necessarily wait until it reaches “bottom” if the rental prospects and cash flow projections look promising.

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Real Estate Photography

One of the points I always make to sellers in my listing presentations is that photography is the key to making their listings pop online, and having a listing that “pops” is part of what it takes these days to pique buyer interest and get an offer – assuming you are not listed at some rock bottom, “I don’t care what it looks like” price.

 I have a couple of photographers I like to work with, and on occasion I take my own shots and I have an interest in what it takes to make a good real estate photography.  Showing as much of a room as possible, having good lighting and preparing the room for pictures are part of the equation.  There are other tips and tricks as well.

Here are a few resources for help on real estate photography.

Sometimes the day you have scheduled to take pictures does not grace you with a lovely blue sky, potentially leaving you with a drab exterior photo.  I must admit this is a frequent issue in the Seattle area!  Never fear – there are ways around this.  As long as the light is generally good enough to illuminate the exterior of the house, the sky issue can be dealt with by using a “replacement sky.”  This is done in Photoshop or other photo editing software by cropping out the old sky and inserting the new sky in a second layer.  Vince DeStefano has been kind enough to post some free replacement skies on his website - looks like Australian skies are beautiful!

Photography For Real Estate has a popular post on how to control window lighting.  This is the classic real estate photography issue – on a sunny day, bright light floods in through the window, causing the interior to look dark.  This issue can be difficult to correct in post production unless you know the secrets. 

PFRE has many other tutorials and tools, including this great basic guide to photography for REALTORS and this $35 e-book that shows you how to create the great shots you need for real estate marketing.

Photography really is one of the most important factors in marketing homes these days so it’s really important to understand what to look for, and how to get the results you are seeking.

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The Banking Crisis Comes to Mukilteo

The first time I drove by and saw the Whidbey Island Bank banner fluttering where a CityBank sign used to be, I couldn’t remember what the banner had replaced.  But when I saw a banner had been installed at the former City Bank location next to the grocery store where I usually shop, it suddenly dawned on me – “Ah, so City Bank went under.”

I had friends that used to work in that branch.  One of whom I specifically remember telling me that the majority of their business at one point was construction loans to small and medium sized builders.   They were hardly unique in that respect since that was everyone’s bread and butter until a couple of years ago.  Still, as the real estate market began to struggle I often wondered how that was working out for them.  I guess I have my answer.

This kind of bank rebranding is one of the most obvious signs of the changing times here in Mukilteo.  The first time it happened was with Washington Mutual, which made national headlines when it was taken over by Chase.  That one didn’t really hit home so much (although I used to bank there years ago) because Wamu had long since gone national. 

When it happened again just last week, this time it truly was local.  City Bank, which in addition to its location here in Mukilteo had others in Lynnwood and around the north end of Seattle, was taken over by Whidbey Island Bank last weekend, with little fanfare other than the quick installation of some banners to cover the City Bank name. 

As a former customer of Whidbey Island Bank I was interested to see the bank expanding off of the island…makes you sort of wonder if they will have to change their name, now that they are no longer just a “Whidbey Island” bank?

I am also curious how many other local banks will find themselves in a similar situation in the next year or two.

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Straight Talk About Real Estate

About a month ago, I was asked to contribute a real estate column to the Mukilteo Beacon, our local paper.  I was honored to be asked and last week, my first column was published.  How cool is that?  The column will be featured in the Beacon on a monthly basis, the second Wednesday of each month.  Here’s an excerpt of the key parts:

“… 

March Real Estate Data 

According to Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS) data, in March 2010 there were 20 residential and condominium sales that closed within the Mukilteo city limits.  This is an increase of 66% over March of 2009.  This represents stabilization but not a “recovery” to levels seen in recent years.  Sales volume is still down 28% over the same period in 2008 and is down 61% compared to March 2007, near the peak for our local market.   

What about prices?  The median sale price for a home sold in Mukilteo in March 2010 was down 15% compared to 2009, and down 21% from 2008.  Oddly, however, the median sale price was actually HIGHER than it was in March 2007.  No, this doesn’t mean your home is now worth more than it was at market peak!  It does, however, mean that there was more activity in the high end than there had been in March of that year. 

A better way to determine what is going on with prices of specific homes is to look at the change in average dollars per square foot. This comparison adjusts for differences in size and other factors. The average dollar per square foot cost of a home sold in Mukilteo in March 2010 was $181/sf.  This is down 11% from 2009 and down 27% from 2007.     

Now for the good news!  The first bit of good news is in March pending sales.  March was a busy month for making offers, and we currently have more than 50 homes in Mukilteo in Pending status with offers.  

The reason for this surge clearly seems to be the deadline for the Homebuyers Tax Credit.  All homebuyers who wish to be eligible for this credit must have an offer in place by April 30, 2010 and must close on that sale by June 30.  It does appear that we should see a very active spring with lots of sold signs going up, at least until the deadline runs out. 

The other bright spot is that we are seeing more balanced sales activity across all price ranges.  Since January 2009, homes over $1 million have made up a mere 1.3% of sales in Mukilteo, and homes over $500K have only comprised 29% of sales.  Last month, we saw homes in these price ranges comprising 50% of overall sales.  Looking ahead, Pending sales are showing a similar distribution. 

Lastly, it is important to remember that real estate is a long term investment.  In spite of market fluctuations and global financial crises, there has been a significant pay-off over the last 10 years for Mukilteo homeowners.  Since March 2000, home prices in Mukilteo have increased at an average of almost 7% per year.  This illustrates that in spite of all the bad news we’ve been hearing, Mukilteo real estate is still one of the safest and most secure investments a family can make over the long term .”

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For Love or Money

There are as many approaches to what it takes to sell a listing in today’s market as there are listing agents and sellers.  For most of the last couple of years, something on the order of 90% of the listings that went on the market didn’t sell, and neither agents or sellers knew at first what to make of it, and later, what to do about it.  This may sound like a criticism, but in fact, it’s just an observation that we have been in a period of “price discovery” resulting from major changes to the lending market that drives buyer activity. 

As agents, we suggest prices to our seller clients relative to comparable sales, and failing that, relative to other homes on the market.  However, FINDING a comparable sale – a TRULY comparable sale – was the challenge for the last few months of 2007, and most of 2008, even heading into 2009.

But over this period, some homes have sold.  Foreclosures, short sales and builder liquidations have led the market in a downward direction.  “Regular” sellers have also had to adjust their prices downward, to compete.  So it seemed we were in freefall for a while there.

That’s where the laws of economics appear to be kicking in.  One of the most basic laws of economics is the law of supply and demand.  That law says that in a competitive market, price acts as the equalizer between supply and demand.  Too much supply means prices come down, too little means they go up.  When they come down enough, demand increases, stabilizing the market. 

Finally, it seems that price reductions over the last couple of years seem to be combining with other incentives (such as still historically low interest rates, and the first time buyer tax credit) resulting in more buyer activity.  The last couple of months of pending sales numbers are up over 2008, even if prices are lower.

So, things are starting to stabilize, and we are now getting used to “the new normal.” 

At the micro level, agents and their clients now seem to be falling into two camps in regards to what it takes to sell a listing.  Just like they always have!

One camp believes that it’s all about the money.  “Price is king.”  These folks think price is literally ALL that matters, and you can tell when you walk into these listings because although the price is low, you can tell that no effort has been spared to make the place seem as unlikeable as possible.  I would go so far as to say some of these listings are downright scary.  From caved-in ceilings, to dog doo on the carpet, and rats in the toilet – I have seen it all!  (Okay, these are extreme examples, I admit).

I often think that there are some homes you would be challenged to give away.

The other camp thinks that love is all you need.  To these folks, staging, preparation and marketing still make all the difference.  In fact, some folks in this camp believe those things make so much of a difference that they are still pricing those listings like it was Spring of 2007, or based on what the seller owes (from their 2007 refi). 

These listings will never sell either because the elements are not in balance – these places may look great but you can’t ignore the price element.

Fundamentally, both camps have it half-right.  Price needs to be set attractively, and in keeping with comparable sales in the area.  And if your area has few comparable sales it may take some work to figure out what it’s going to take to attract a buyer. 

But, that is just the first step.  Buyers have a lot to choose from, even if most of that inventory seems to be priced relative to other listings on the market rather than relative to actual sales.  (Sales are the more reliable indicator of likely price than people who are on the market and have failed to sell). 

And since there is a lot to choose from, it takes a well-prepared listing to be the one that buyers will choose. 

It is true that staging still makes a difference.  Love may not conquer all, but it will definitely work in your favor as a seller if you can make a buyer fall in love with your home.  However, all the staging and marketing in the world won’t matter if buyers don’t see the value, and don’t come to look at the listing.  Price and value, along with the right kinds of marketing, are what will get the buyer in the door.  Staging and careful preparation are what give your home the appearance of being the best value of all the choices in a buyer’s price range, and helping them mentally move into, or fall in love, with a home.  When other factors are equal, staging makes your home the one buyers choose.

I heard it put very well recently – we are in a price war AND a beauty contest.  You have to win both to be the house that gets the offer. 

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